IT spending is expected to grow 5 percent in 2014 to $2.14 trillion, according to IDC.
The global IT spending next year will be driven by a rebound in China and continued momentum in the U.S. and Europe.
In 2013, according to IDC, worldwide IT spending will increase by 4 percent at constant currency, reaching $2.04 trillion, down from last year’s growth of 5 percent mainly due to the slowdown in key emerging markets, including China and Russia.
Almost half of this year’s IT industry growth is due to continued strength in smartphone and tablet shipments.
Excluding mobile phones, IT spending will increase by 2.6 percent this year at constant currency.
Enterprise IT spending in many regions has been tepid since last year, with weaker spending on PCs, servers, and storage than previously expected.
Tentative signs of stability in commercial PC shipments during the third quarter may foreshadow the gradual recovery in enterprise infrastructure investment which we expect to unfold in the next 12-18 months as a broad-based capital spending cycle kicks into gear.
Spending on servers, storage, and enterprise networks will increase by 1 percent in 2013 before accelerating to growth of 4 percent next year.
While the United States IT spending growth will be 5 percent this year, this translates into 3 percent excluding mobile phones. Enterprise spending in the U.S. has been relatively resilient, given the ongoing political volatility, but spending on PCs and servers will decline this year while storage investment is flat. Both the storage and server markets in the U.S. are expected to improve in 2014, but PC spending is likely to remain weak in spite of signs of stability in the third quarter as tablet cannibalization continues at lower price points.
Market conditions are gradually improving in Western Europe, where overall IT spending is on course for growth of 2 percent this year (1 percent excluding phones), and where economic momentum has taken a turn for the better in many countries. IDC believes this gradual recovery will continue next year, translating into IT spending growth of 3 percent driven mainly by strengthening sales of commercial software.
This year has also seen a moderate improvement in Japan, driven by the government’s short-term policy initiatives; while IT spending is on course to be flat in 2013 (0 percent growth), this marks an improvement from IDC’s previous forecast of a 1 percent decline.
IT demand will accelerate in China next year, in line with the expectation that macroeconomic growth and business confidence will improve. In China, overall IT spending is on course to increase by just 8 percent this year, the weakest pace of growth since 2008; next year, IDC forecasts an acceleration of growth to 14 percent led by strengthening sales of PCs, servers, storage, software, and IT services.
Growth in India will remain broadly strong, driven mainly by smartphones and tablets, but IDC expects a slowdown in PC sales after state-level government initiatives helped to drive strong growth in 2013 and there are also signs of weakening growth in other sectors.
A gradual deceleration in tech spending is also emerging in Brazil, while in Russia the economic slowdown has driven overall industry growth to just 1 percent this year (from 15 percent in 2012). IDC forecasts a rebound in Russia to 10 percent growth next year, driven by smartphones, software, and services.