IT market research agency IDC forecasts worldwide PC shipments will fall 10 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 and drop 10.3 percent in 2015 as a whole.
In its Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker report, IDC said the strong dollar, depressed commodity prices, and existing inventory have lowered the outlook for early 2016.
However, shipments are expected to stabilize by the end of 2016 and grow slightly toward the end of the forecast as commercial replacements rise. It forecasts 3.1 percent decline next year.
According to the research agency, Japan and Middle East and Africa in particular will experience double-digit lower growth over the next year or more. At the same time, Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America regions have a short-term outlook that is in the high-single-digits lower.
Contrastingly, the forecast for the United States, Western Europe, and Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) will be only slightly lower, and Canada improved slightly.
Beyond short-term declines, IDC remains optimistic that replacements of commercial and consumer systems will ultimately stabilize the market and even drive growth.
“Once commercial adoption of Windows 10 accelerates, and in combination with upgrades to steadily aging consumer PCs, we expect demand for new PCs to improve for several years as replacements will also be boosted by the end of support for Window 7, just as the end of support for Windows XP boosted shipments in 2014,” IDC said.